The Stern Report

Simple verdict after a complex inquiry: time is running out

Sir Nicholas Stern was commissioned by Gordon Brown to write a landmark report on climate change, amid growing fears about the human and economic cost of global warming.

Sir Nicholas, an internationally regarded economist, spent more than a year examining the complex problem. After a week of rumours and leaks, yesterday he formally launched his 579-page report. Though dry in its delivery, it had a simple and apocalyptic message: climate change is fundamentally altering the planet; the risks of inaction are high; and time is running out.

Stern report: the key points

The dangers
· All countries will be affected by climate change, but the poorest countries will suffer earliest and most.

· Average temperatures could rise by 5C from pre-industrial levels if climate change goes unchecked.

· Warming of 3 or 4C will result in many millions more people being flooded. By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought.

· Warming of 4C or more is likely to seriously affect global food production.

· Warming of 2C could leave 15-40% species facing extinction.

· Before the industrial revolution level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million (ppm) CO2 equivalent (CO2e); the current level is 430ppm CO2e. The level should be limited to 450-550ppm CO2.

· Anything higher would substantially increase risks of very harmful impacts. Anything lower would impose very high adjustment costs in the near term and might not even be feasible.

· Deforestation is responsible for more emissions than the transport sector.

· Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.

Recommended actions

· Three elements of policy are required for an effective response: carbon pricing, technology policy and energy efficiency.

· Carbon pricing, through taxation, emissions trading or regulation, will show people the full social costs of their actions. The aim should be a global carbon price across countries and sectors.

· Emissions trading schemes, like that operating across the EU, should be expanded and linked.

· Technology policy should drive the large-scale development and use of a range of low-carbon and high-efficiency products.

· Globally, support for energy research and development should at least double; support for the deployment of low-carbon technologies should be increased my up to five times.

· International product standards could be introduced.

· Large-scale international pilot programmes to explore the best ways to curb deforestation should be started very quickly.

· Climate change should be fully integrated into development policy, and rich countries should honour pledges to increase support through overseas development assistance.

· International funding should support improved regional information on climate change impacts.

· International funding should go into researching new crop varieties that will be more resilient to drought and flood.

(Also has stats for economic impacts)


Meanwhile - OPEC says British climate change report "unfounded"

"We find some of the so-called initiatives of the rich industrialized countries who are supposed to take the lead in combating climate change rather alarming," he said.

"One recent example is the review on climate change that was issued yesterday by the UK government in London."