Chaos Theory in Iraq

From the Asia Times. This article may be simplified - but I think it's a good assesment of what's going on over there.

Iraq: Bush has a plan, and it's working

"If you listen carefully for a Democrat plan for success, they don't have one. Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, yet they don't have a plan ..."
- US President George W Bush, campaigning for Republicans in next week's congressional elections.

So, does the Bush administration have a plan for Iraq, and if so, is it working? The answer to both questions could well be "yes". But it's not a plan that Bush could publicly boast about, despite the fact that it's working like a charm.

This is how things are shaping up in Iraq, according to US Central Command itself, which keeps a "chaos gauge" to measure Iraq's progress from chaos to peace.


According to the New York Times, the "gauge" was shown as a slide at a classified briefing on October 18. 

Unfortunately for the benighted Iraqis, the gauge is moving steadily in the "wrong" direction: away from peace and into the "red zone" of chaos. So how is it that the Bush plan can be said to be working? Easy, if the plan is ... chaos. 

Asia Times Online columnist Spengler has pointed out that chaos is probably the best option for the Bush administration, not only in Iraq but in the region (see How I learned to stop worrying and love chaos, March 14, 2006, and Mistah Kurtz, he clueless, May 11, 2004). Mark LeVine writes (The chaos theory in action, April 6, 2004): "It is chaos that makes this whole [post-invasion Iraqi] system possible. Without the chaos, Iraqis would not allow the country to be sold off wholesale, or allow the US troops to remain after the June 30 'transfer' of sovereignty."

A strategy of fomenting chaos makes perfect sense in a twisted sort of way: a stable, autonomous Iraq means oil will be pumped, bringing down international crude prices, and that's the last thing the Bush administration's backers want.

Who are the administration's backers, and who has a hotline to the presidency, via Vice President Dick Cheney? Big Oil. Consider these well-known facts:

• Cheney was formerly chief executive officer of oil-services company Halliburton, which, incidentally, was found by a 2003 Pentagon audit to have overcharged the US government by US$61 million for delivering gasoline to Iraq.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sat on Chevron's board of directors from 1991 to 2001, and Chevron named an oil tanker after her.

• James A Baker III, secretary of state for Bush's father and now "fixer" for the Bush family, has been appointed co-chair of the Iraq Study Group, charged with advising Bush Jr on future Iraq policy. His law firm, Baker Botts, was ranked by Who's Who Legal last year as "Global Oil and Gas Law Firm of the Year". His clients include the royal family of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kingpin Saudi Arabia.

• Bush himself was a Texas oilman, though not a very successful one. Ever heard of Bush's company, Arbusto? Probably not. Arbusto was going busto before it eventually ended up in the hands of Harken Energy in 1986. Harken gave Bush a seat on the board, some stock options and a $120,000 consulting contract. The energy industry pumped $2.8 million into Bush's 2000 campaign.

• Consider too that oil-industry behemoth ExxonMobil this week announced third-quarter earnings of $10.49 billion, largely on the backs of US consumers paying high prices for oil. This is the second-biggest quarterly profit ever recorded by a publicly traded US company.

Better not brag about your plan before the elections, Mr President. 

______________________________

Also - Saddam Hussein was sentenced to death today - prompting speculation about the verdict creating more chaos in Iraq.

The trial of Saddam Hussein was supposed to mark an important moment in a process of turning Iraq from dictatorship to the rule of law. However, it might turn out to be just another event in the catalogue of chaos that has engulfed the country.

And from Juan Cole:

The Daily Telegraph reports that the death verdict against Saddam Hussein announced Sunday has sharpened further Iraq's already parlous ethnic tensions. Shiites in Sadr City, once viciously repressed by Saddam, erupted in celebrations of joy, including celebratory fire. NBC news is reporting some protests by Sunnis in the capital.

Riverbend, from Iraq - Baghdad Burning - posted about the verdict as well, today.

...Iraq saw demonstrations against and for the verdict. The pro-Saddam demonstrators were attacked by the Iraqi army. This is how free our media is today: the channels that were showing the pro-Saddam demonstrations have been shut down. Iraqi security forces promptly raided them.Welcome to the new Iraq...




Zawra channel. The subtitle says: Baghdad: Zawra satellite channel has stopped broadcasting by order of the government.

It’s not about the man- presidents come and go, governments come and go. It’s the frustration of feeling like the whole country and every single Iraqi inside and outside of Iraq is at the mercy of American politics. It is the rage of feeling like a mere chess piece to be moved back and forth at will. It is the aggravation of having a government so blind and uncaring about their peoples needs that they don’t even feel like it’s necessary to go through the motions or put up an act. And it's the deaths. The thousands of dead and dying, with Bush sitting there smirking and lying about progress and winning in a country where every single Iraqi outside of the Green Zone is losing...