Notes from Nairobi

Climate conference settles on next steps to negotiate future emissions cuts

NAIROBI, Kenya: A U.N. conference on climate change has set a rough timetable for reaching a new agreement to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, but some officials and activists warn that the world is still moving too slowly and selfishly in the fight against global warming.

China agreed Friday to a review of the Kyoto Protocol by 2008 — crucial toward setting new quotas on carbon dioxide and other emissions — but only after being assured it and other developing countries would remain exempt from mandatory cuts in the near future....

"The science tells us that we need faster and deeper political progress if we are to avoid the social, economic and humanitarian consequences of unchecked climate change," a joint statement said. "Every country has a part to play in the drive to prevent dangerous climate change."

The 1997 Kyoto pact obliges 35 industrial nations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The United States rejects that accord, with U.S. President George W. Bush contending it would damage the U.S. economy and should have given poorer countries obligations as well....

"We have made progress and have reached agreements on all of the priorities for the conference," said Stavros Dimas, the European Union environment commissioner. But he added, "There is no time to waste. We must cut global emissions by 50 percent by the middle of the century."

Meanwhile, emissions by the United States, the world's biggest emitter, have grown by 16 percent since 1990. And China is expected to overtake the United States as the No. 1 carbon dioxide emitter before 2010, the International Energy Agency reports.

UN climate pact unlikely until after Bush--experts

This week's U.N. climate talks kept a plan for fighting global warming on track for expansion beyond 2012, but breakthroughs look unlikely before U.S. President George W. Bush steps down, experts said on Saturday.

"Everyone is waiting for the United States. I think the whole process will be on ice until 2009," when Bush's second term expires, said Paal Prestrud, head of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo.

The United States is the biggest source of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels, and Bush's decision to reject caps under the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol discourages involvement by other big-polluting outsiders such as China and India.

After two weeks of talks, about 70 environment ministers in Nairobi agreed on Friday to a 2008 review of Kyoto as a possible prelude to deeper emission cuts by rich nations beyond 2012 and steps by developing countries to brake rising emissions.

They also agreed modest schemes to help Africa adapt to the feared effects of climate change such as drought, storms, disease and rising seas. Ministers agreed to promote green technologies, such as wind or solar power, in the poorest continent....

Several senior delegates at the U.N. talks say 2010 now looks the most likely date for a new global pact to replace Kyoto. "We'd love a deadline of 2008 or 2009 but that looks unlikely unless Bush has a change of heart," one said.

Environmentalists want a 2008 deadline. "Technically it's still not impossible," said Hans Verolme, climate director of the WWF conservation group. "The planet cannot wait."

More notes here and here