Drought - The New (Permanant?) Reality

By Rachel Kleinman / theage.com.au

DROUGHT will become a redundant term as Australia plans for a permanently drier future, according to the nation's urban water industries chief.

And climate experts yesterday predicted the present drought would continue, signalling a cruel summer for farmers and sparking fears of higher food prices.

"The urban water industry has decided the inflows of the past will never return," Water Services Association of Australia executive director Ross Young said. "We are trying to avoid the term 'drought' and saying this is the new reality."

Bureau of Meteorology national climate centre chief Michael Coughlan said hopes were fading fast for desperately needed rains. "Is this drought over? Certainly not — we can't predict when this drought will end," Dr Coughlan said.

Murray Darling Basin Commission chief executive Wendy Craik said irrigators on the Murray River, including many Victorian citrus growers and dairy farmers, faced their worst ever summer. Fresh produce would be hit and food prices would probably rise, Dr Craik warned.

The experts were at a drought briefing in Melbourne organised by the Australian Science Media Centre.

More than half of Australia's agricultural land, including all of Victoria's, is now drought-declared, costing the Federal Government $1.8 billion so far.

Exceptional circumstances funding for many areas will run out in March next year.

But the Government may extend the emergency relief, Department of Agriculture drought manager Matt Koval said. That would mean spending hundreds of millions of dollars extra to bail out farmers...

"If rain is not forthcoming (over the next week or two), there's going to be … quite a few farmers, particularly those dairy farmers on the Murray, that will fall by the wayside," he said.

Dr Craik said combined storages and inflows in the Murray system were at record lows and the situation was deteriorating. "These are the worst conditions since the Hume Dam was completed in 1936," she said. "It will take multiple years for storages to recover and the outlook is very grim."

Mr Young blamed climate change for the nation's water woes. "No one predicted how savagely low inflows would be under climate change," he said. Strong population growth combined with low inflows had created a dual squeeze on city water supplies.

Melbourne's water stores were yesterday at 38.7 per cent, 8 percentage points lower than the same time last year. They have risen by only 0.1 of a percentage point in the past 10 days.

The city is on stage 3a water restrictions, but may move to stage 4 bans over summer. Adelaide and Brisbane also face a dire summer of restrictions...